Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
